The headlines say Iran just launched its 88th wave of strikes against U.S. and Israeli targets. It sounds like a lot. It sounds like a regime that's still in the fight, swinging wildly at its enemies across the Middle East. But if you look past the official IRGC press releases, the picture is much grimmer for Tehran. This isn't a show of strength. It's a desperate attempt to stay relevant while the house is burning down.
Since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, the U.S. and Israel haven't just clipped Iran's wings; they've basically dismantled the cockpit. The initial "decapitation" strikes took out the Supreme Leader and top military brass. Now, a month into the conflict, the IRGC Navy is claiming victory because they hit a container ship and some radar systems. Let's be real. In the context of a full-scale war, hitting a merchant vessel called the Express Halfong with ballistic missiles is the military equivalent of a temper tantrum. Building on this topic, you can find more in: The Brutal Truth Behind Russia’s Double Tap Strategy.
The 88th wave and the reality of the Persian Gulf
The IRGC statement Tuesday morning was predictably loud. They claim to have hit a U.S. Fifth Fleet counter-drone system in Bahrain and early warning radars at Kuwait’s Jaber al-Ahmad base. They even bragged about hitting a "hideout" of U.S. Marines in the UAE using explosive drones.
Tehran wants the world—and its own people—to believe they still control the Strait of Hormuz. They don't. While they can still harass shipping and launch the occasional drone from a hidden basement, the U.S. and Israel have established near-total air supremacy. U.S. MQ-9 Reapers are literally circling Tehran and Shiraz like vultures. Observers at The New York Times have shared their thoughts on this matter.
The "88th wave" sounds impressive until you realize the pace of these attacks is slowing down. At the start of this mess, Iran was firing 90 missiles a day. Now? They're lucky to get 10 off the ground before an Israeli F-35 or a U.S. Navy strike wipes the launcher. The IRGC has lost over 150 naval vessels and nearly 70% of its ballistic missile launchers. These "waves" aren't tsunamis anymore. They're ripples.
Why the UAE and Kuwait are catching heat
You might wonder why Iran is wasting precious drones on targets in Kuwait or the UAE instead of focusing purely on the American carriers in the Arabian Sea. It’s about the "supply chain war."
Back on March 28, Iran hit the Emirates Aluminum plant and a major facility in Bahrain. They're trying to punish the Gulf states for "hosting the enemy." It's a classic mob tactic: if you can't hit the guy who punched you, go after his friends.
But this strategy is backfiring. Instead of scaring the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) into neutrality, it's pushing them deeper into the U.S.-Israeli orbit. These countries are seeing firsthand that Iranian "protection" is a myth. The Patriot batteries and new-generation radars are mostly doing their jobs, even if a few drones slip through the cracks.
The Mojtaba Khamenei factor
While the IRGC Navy tries to sink cargo ships, the real drama is in the bunkers of Tehran. With Ali Khamenei gone, his son Mojtaba has been fast-tracked to lead. That's a tough sell for a population that was already out in the streets protesting in January.
The regime is fighting two wars at once. One is against the most advanced militaries on the planet. The other is against 85 million Iranians who are tired of paying for "Operation True Promise" while their economy collapses and their schools get hit in the crossfire.
The 88th wave is meant to show the Iranian public that the IRGC hasn't folded. It's theater. They need the footage of a burning ship to keep the hardliners from deserting. But you can't win a war with propaganda when you've lost your command-and-control hubs.
The cost of keeping the lights on
The financial toll is staggering. The U.S. has already spent $18 billion in just a few weeks, and the Pentagon is asking for $200 billion more. Oil is sitting north of $100 a barrel. But for Iran, the cost isn't just money. It's their entire regional architecture.
Hezbollah has lost over 400 fighters. The "Axis of Resistance" is looking more like a circle of targets. Every time Iran launches one of these waves, they reveal another hidden launch site or a mobile radar unit. They're trading their last remaining assets for headlines that don't change the tactical map.
If you’re tracking the conflict, don't get distracted by the numbering of these "waves." The IRGC will likely announce the 100th wave soon. It makes for a great tweet. But pay attention to the targets. When a military starts bragging about hitting a "counter-drone system" and a container ship, it means they've run out of ways to hit the things that actually matter.
Watch the skies over Tehran. That's where the real story is. The U.S. and Israel aren't done, and despite the "heavy strikes" claimed by the IRGC, the pressure is only going to ramp up as the Trump administration pushes for a total dismantle of the regime's military capacity.
Basically, the 88th wave isn't a comeback. It's a goodbye.
Immediate steps to follow the situation
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz: Check daily Lloyd’s List or maritime security reports for actual shipping disruptions vs. IRGC claims.
- Track the UAE/Bahrain response: Watch for new GCC defense acquisitions. They're moving away from reliance on US protection toward integrated regional air defense.
- Watch Iranian domestic social media: Use VPN-supported feeds to see if the "waves" are actually boosting morale or if the internal dissent is reaching a breaking point.
